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Citation Station: Scientists to End World

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      CommentAuthorfred
    • CommentTimeFeb 23rd 2006 edited
     

    Fact: Since 1997, Brookhaven National Laboratory has been running a high energy particle physics experiment that has a 1 in 5000 chance of creating a small black hole that would consume the lab, Long Island and the Earth in a matter of moments.

    A skeptical reader correctly pointed out that such an experiment has been conducted since 1999, not 1997, sparing us for an expected two more years. We regret the error.

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    It just goes to show, you can't get anything past the readers of Gullible.info.

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    I hope they don't succeed in doing that. I'm too young to die.

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      CommentAuthorfred
    • CommentTimeFeb 25th 2006 edited
     

    Dear powdered_beryllium,

    now don't be discouraged; you're really not too young!

    A major longitudinal study of over 43,000 individuals, completed in 2004, showed that most people are fully capable of dying by the age of 6, or even younger under special circumstances.

    So buck up there!

    Best regards,
    Fred

    • CommentAuthorCthulhu449
    • CommentTimeFeb 25th 2006
     

    I still do not believe this is accurate. Had you claimed a less likely chance of this world-ending mini black hole forming then I may have simply accepted the "fact," but 1 in 5000 seemed a bit dicey for scientists to bet our planet on. Read these two articles:
    http://www.kressworks.com/Science/A_black_hole_ate_my_planet.htm
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/399513.stm
    Scientists who work on the project continue to say that the accelerator simply does not have the energy to create a singularity with mass enough to devour the planet before it dispersed into hawking radiation or is "washed away" by quantum irregularities as one article put it. In addition, the sun has been bombarding our planet with high energy radiation for quite some time, and fortunately we have yet to see the spontaneous formation of a black hole that has destroyed our planet, at least that I am aware of. If you just have a basic understanding of the physics involved the whole idea begins to break down and puts this "fact" closer to the catagory of interesting, but certainly not true, myth.

    However, if someone has legitimate documentation from a few scientific sources that supports this claim, please do post it here.

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    It's a good thing that people aren't just willing to blindly accept everything they read online. However, what you're overlooking is that the primary sources on those articles are this the scientist in charge of the project. This man's very job and professional reputation depend on securing funding for the project. Now, given that, do you think there's any kind of a chance that he'd bring up this very real possibility? Of course not.

    Personally, I don't think that this is going to make a black hole. But the 1 in 5,000 figure was generated by people who don't have huge personal and financial ties to this project.

    Think about it. Why is the only person saying this is 100% safe the guy who is in charge? If that were true, the reporters would have had prominent scientists lining up to be quoted in this article. It's sad that we live in a world where we have to be this en guard, but it's just the reality of the situation.

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      CommentAuthorfred
    • CommentTimeFeb 26th 2006 edited
     

    And besides, a 1 in 5000 chance, for just one little project, isn't all that risky if you think about it! It's kind of fun really.

    Just think of the chances you take every time you get in your car.

    Fred

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    It is outlandish for my collegues in acedemia to continue this inexcusable farce any longer!

    The actual statistics for a catestrophic event at the Brookhaven facility is 1 in 3.14159265, not 1 in 5000 as previously reported. As you well know, the addendum to the previous assessment was reported by the Nation Board of Scientific Review in August of 2004.

    (see WWW.NBSR.org/brookhaven/criticalmass/oddsforblackholeformation)

    Best Regards,
    Dr. Winston Astor-Cabot

    • CommentAuthorNHawkins
    • CommentTimeMar 2nd 2006
     

    Dr. Astor-Cabot,

    Thank you for your prompt reply. However, your link seems to be broken. Also, I don't see you listed on NBSR's directory, although you are credited for several NBSR papers over the last several months. What gives?

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    The link works for me.

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    He's playing with your head. 3.14159265 is pi, and doctors usually spell "catastrophic" correctly

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      CommentAuthorfred
    • CommentTimeMar 15th 2006 edited
     

    Dear Plastikgank,

    thank you for bringing this to our attention. I have been away on business and was unaware of the shenanigans that have been going on here. Of course Dr. Astor-Cabot must be joking; his sense of 'humor' is almost as bad as his spelling!

    (I will never forget the stunt he pulled at the big IAAMSP meeting a few years ago; it took hours to get the pigeons out of the lecture hall.)

    We will have our people get in touch with him and request that in the future he remember that this is a serious internet research site.

    Perhaps we should have known better than to allow him to be a member of this forum, but he generally is regarded as a keen mind with far-ranging expertise.

    Thank you,
    Fred C. Strauss

    • CommentAuthorCrushthor
    • CommentTimeMar 16th 2006
     
    I have been banned

    Pigeons? Seriously?

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    My dear Fredrick:

    I am soory about the typographical error I made in my last post. I was unaware that such an errorwould result in the rest of the information regarding Brookhaven to be thrown out along with my spellchecker.

    So be it.

    Regarding the Pi connection, please inform your Mr. Plasticksak, that further research is currently under way, and also remind him that Pi is Pi because it continaully appears in surprising places.

    I am however, concerned that MR. Plasticksak was so eager and qiuck to dismiss ( and discredit) information that many in positions of power would like to hide?

    Regardless of his motivations, I do hereby dender my resignation as a member of your board.

    Forevere your friend,
    Dr. Winston Astor-Cabot

    P.S. If you remember, Doves were released at IAAMSP 2002, not pidgeons.

    • CommentAuthorrrsjr
    • CommentTimeMar 22nd 2006
     

    Two SciFi novels, David Brin's "Earth" and Dan Simmons' "Hyperion Cantos" (and many more I' haven't read, I'm sure) use this concept of "man-made black holes eating the earth's core" as plot points.

    Personally I find "cat-powered antigravity" more likely (concept by Alan Moore). For the unitiated, the theory is based upon the principles that 1) cats always land on their feet and 2) buttered toast, when dropped, will always land buttered-side-down. Therefore, by smearing butter onto the backs of cats and throwing them into the air, they should (theoretically) twist about endlessly without ever touching ground. It's uncertain whether margarine will achieve the same results.

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      CommentAuthorcadet
    • CommentTimeApr 4th 2006
     

    I think we are getting way off topic here. Cat powered anti-gravity? Seriously, we are talking about black holes not cats. And one other thing, what is the difference between a black hole at the center of the earth and one on the surface? I'll tell you what the difference is, absolutely nothing.

    After some extensive research into this subject I have found that the claim of 1:5000 is much more reasonable than 1:pi. Also according to my research the scientists are, at the time I post this, 1463 trials overdue for the catostrophic black hole. Just goes to show how much statistics can be trusted.

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      CommentAuthorclever
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2006
     

    just thought you might want to know the chanse of that particle accerrator actuly creating a black hole is .0002% chance of happning very slim
    \\//
    -(@ @)-
    --oOO-- (_)-- OOo-
    Kilroy was here

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      CommentAuthorcadet
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2006
     

    No, that is flat out wrong. 1/5000 is not .000002, it is .0002, therefore the percent chance of it hapening is .02%

    I understand how it would be easy to make the mistake, so no hard feelings.

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      CommentAuthorcadet
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2006 edited
     

    But the chances of it occuring even at .02% are very very slim.

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    We all sort of agreed that that was an acceptable margin of possibility, plus it makes life more fun!

    • CommentAuthorandylee964
    • CommentTimeApr 22nd 2006
     

    Wow, you people do not know physics or how to type correctly. There is one thing you do know though, and that is how to get way off topic!

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    what's wrong with the physics?

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      CommentAuthorcadet
    • CommentTimeApr 23rd 2006
     

    And who is typing incorrectly?

    • CommentAuthorSeygull
    • CommentTimeApr 25th 2006
     

    Forget science...read the Holy Bible!

    What if it really IS true?

    • CommentAuthoremporer1
    • CommentTimeMay 4th 2006
     

    Add that to every other possible way of death (car accident, earthquake, Pintos, rampaging giraffe, getting stabbed with sporks, cats thrown from buildings, bad aiming **cough** Cheney! **cough**) we should be thankful.

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    Fred,

    Where was this fact sourced from? This is something I'd love to quote to people. . .

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      CommentAuthorUdoboy
    • CommentTimeMay 19th 2006
     

    <<A skeptical reader correctly pointed out that such an experiment has been conducted since 1999, not 1997, sparing us for an expected two more years. We regret the error.>>

    I don't believe the 1/5000 is accurate, first of all. I think the odds are more like 1:500,000,000. But if it is, this means that each instant we have the 1/5000 possibility of joining the singularity. Starting the experiment later does not change the odds, or give us any extra time.

    • CommentAuthor24x24
    • CommentTimeJun 18th 2006
     

    If one error was made, could not more have followed allowing for the above theory of 1:500,000,000?

    • CommentAuthorMAVaR
    • CommentTimeJun 19th 2006
     

    Did you know that was one of the experiments they were planning on doing at the University of Washingtons new 'Bio-Science' lab that was squashed last year?

    • CommentAuthoraf1733
    • CommentTimeAug 1st 2006 edited
     

    When I came across this factoid, the way I read it was that if the scientists were able to create a black hole, they would have to create 4,999 more before they created one with the mass and strength to demolish the Earth. I could be wrong, but just the fact that they're toying with the tools necessary to create a black hole does not mean that they actually create one on "every" attempt.

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    I have been banned

    Well my question would be y dose this stupid crap need to take place i can think of bedder way to spend 50 million dollers............Like git presodent bush a high school deploma:bigsmile::devil:

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      CommentAuthorMrFingers
    • CommentTimeAug 2nd 2006
     

    Playing with black holes will vastly expand our knowledge of our universe. Black holes are a very fundamental and impoortant feature of the universe that we really do not understand yet, and in understanding how they work we will be able to learn an unimaginable number of things deduced from them. 50mil is easily worth expanding human knowledge you [insert insult].

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    I have been banned

    No not really u jack ass it not there r some things we jus shouldent be toying with and that is one of them. 50 million could be bedder spent gitting pres bush a high school deploma. And another thing if thay do suseed how bout we feed mr. fingers to it first for that matter all the jack asses who think this is a good idha if u wanna syudy a balck hole u build a ship go into spave and go study it leave earth out of the equahion!!!!!!!!!

    • CommentAuthorS_Gibbles
    • CommentTimeAug 2nd 2006
     

    wow, if horrible spellers could fly, this forum would be an airport.

    Ultimately, I believe that the more we study and discover (be it black holes, hawking radiation or what have you) the more questions we will have. In the end, scientists can only bring us so far, and all the answers provided are left to "faith". I'm not a religious man, but you have to have faith to remain sane in this world. After every question is answered, you can still always ask "why?" So my question here is: WHY do we insists on coming up with new and exciting ways to end our existence?

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      CommentAuthorMrFingers
    • CommentTimeAug 3rd 2006
     

    why the fuck would we spend 50mil getting bush a diploma when not only has he already been to yale, but he's not worth a dime. angelwolf, normally I would consider debating the merits of experimenting with black holes, but your mental capacity doesn't seem quite up to the task.

    • CommentAuthorJimmis
    • CommentTimeAug 3rd 2006
     

    If anything, I'd rather spend 50mil to get anglewolf here a spelling tutor.

    But getting back on topic, I agree with af1733 just because it could be possible to create a black hole does not mean that this may ever occure.

    • CommentAuthorDan Jr.
    • CommentTimeAug 3rd 2006
     

    Well, hi everyone, I am new as of today...... 1 in 5,000 seems to high for anyone to risk. I would have to wonder how that could be calculated.

    Two more comments: when the atomic bomb was being conceived and built, Fermi and Teller both worried that the chain reaction would continue beyond the bomb and take the entire planet with it.

    Also: each of us in the US has a one in five-thousand chance of dying in an automobile accident, each and every year. That is a sobering thought!

    Dan

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      CommentAuthorMrFingers
    • CommentTimeAug 3rd 2006
     

    the 1/5000 chance is definitely questionable. I highly doubt scientists would take this risk, especially since they are funded by the government in this project. 1/5000 of destroying the entire planet is not worth it, and I suspect that that number was created by someone ignorant or irrationally critical.

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      CommentAuthorUdoboy
    • CommentTimeAug 4th 2006
     

    Dan Jr.,

    So you're saying that the chance of dying in a black hole... one in 5000 is unacceptable. But the chance of dying in an automobile accident... one in 5000 is all right?

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      CommentAuthorTaed
    • CommentTimeAug 4th 2006
     

    I read recently that the oft-touted 1-in-5000 chance was just an estimate. With newer data, the chance appears to be as small as 1-in-6225, about 25% less.

    • CommentAuthorJimmis
    • CommentTimeAug 4th 2006
     

    1/6225 is more reasonable, but I'm not so sure thats it reasonalbe enough for scientest to take the risk, but I could be wrong.

    • CommentAuthorcats.pal
    • CommentTimeAug 5th 2006 edited
     

    Posted By: angelwolf71885:
    No not really u jack ass it not there r some things we jus shouldent be toying with and that is one of them. 50 million could be bedder spent gitting pres bush a high school deploma. And another thing if thay do suseed how bout we feed mr. fingers to it first for that matter all the jack asses who think this is a good idha if u wanna syudy a balck hole u build a ship go into spave and go study it leave earth out of the equahion!!!!!!!!!

    --------------

    Remind me again who was in need of the high school diploma? With such spelling you must surely be in the fourth grade.

  43.  

    I thought I was a bad spelerr!

    Great Scott! That man must be retarded! (or a genius)! As David St Hubbins said;
    "Its is a fine line between brilliance and stupidity.."

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      CommentAuthorGeog
    • CommentTimeAug 22nd 2006
     

    very true, Doc. :bigsmile:

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      CommentAuthorElixer
    • CommentTimeAug 29th 2006 edited
     

    Hm? Man made black holes? Maybe this'll help!

    it talks about some "allready" man made or "plans" to make some new miniture black holes

    black holes

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      CommentAuthorFunnyman22
    • CommentTimeAug 29th 2006 edited
     

    I think we're all missing a major point in this discussion - what a scientific breakthrough it would be to create a black hole!

    If you ask me, which no one ever does, science should be looking for ways to increase the chances of creating a black hole so we can fully understand this "enigma of the cosmos".

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      CommentAuthorElixer
    • CommentTimeAug 29th 2006
     

    I don't mean to go OT, but I think a creation of a "Star" using fission techniques would be more valuable, because it could produce energy, and say, for example, if you created a little black hole, and it somehow threw us off the circular orbit which we (as a planet) are currently in (don't ask how, I'm just presenting a theoretical situation) maybe, just maybe... we could create, you know, our own sun. Yes; OMG ELIXER, THAT'S PREPOSTEROUS! But where would we be without such theories?

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      CommentAuthorUdoboy
    • CommentTimeAug 29th 2006
     

    Are you missing the point that a sun also has gravity and heat/light output?
    Creating a sun would either freeze us or burn us.

    We're barely getting energy out of our current sun, so creating another wouldn't really do well for increasing our energy supply.

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      CommentAuthorElixer
    • CommentTimeAug 30th 2006
     

    I took that into consideration, yes, but if our planet was shrouded in darkness, I think it would be worth the risk.

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      CommentAuthorGeog
    • CommentTimeSep 2nd 2006
     

    WTF ELIXER YOU WERE RIGHT

    Read this

    They're not fission techniques. When dealing with stars, you're talking about fusion techniques.

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